← The record

The method

How it was builtand where it disagrees with itself

140 advertising and media companies, read page by page over two days. Every claim kept verbatim with the URL it came from. A second pass by MAVEN ruled on what each sector statement establishes and how far it travels.

Captured 16–17 September 2026 · adjudicated 17–18 September 2026 by Michael Risucci

The sample

Twelve categories of the advertising and media supply chain, ten companies each, chosen for share of attention rather than share of revenue. Plus twenty companies that sell on “Outcomes” directly, read deeper.

140companies
627pages captured
2,213claims kept verbatim
536arguments traced to evidence

Home page first, then platform, product, pricing, customers, about and press where they exist. The frame is in sample_frame.csv and the twenty in outcomes20_frame.csv.

What the words mean here

Five definitions carry every count in the study.

TermDefinition, and the count it produces
An “Outcome” claimclaim_type = outcome, plus any claim coded stated metric or guaranteed at any level. 740 of 2,213.
The four levelsnone · implied · stated metric · guaranteed. Across the 740: 2, 297, 433, 8.
Evidence on the pageWhat sits beside the claim where it is made: nothing, a bare number, a named client, a method, or a third party. Across the 740: 28 third-party, 290 named client, 42 method.
A supported argumentA pillar with evidence on the page it is made on, or one click away on the same site. 446 of 536.
A guaranteeLanguage putting something at risk on a stated result. 8 claims. All eight name something upstream of the sale: fraud, attention, reach, delivery, completion.

What the second pass found

Each sector statement was split into six parts — what the word means there, the claim pattern, the evidence pattern, the transfer read, the commercial risk and the white space — and each part was ruled on separately. 78 rows in sector_propositions.csv.

13hold outright
46hold with a boundary
19partially hold
0fail
  1. 13
    hold outright
    Every one of the thirteen claim patterns — the counting itself.
  2. 46
    hold with a boundary
    The statement stands once the limit is printed with it.
  3. 19
    partially hold
    Mostly the transfer reads: how far a sector’s proof travels.
  4. 0
    fail
    No sector statement was withdrawn.

Four headlines the second pass rewrote

Each one claimed more than the capture could carry. The replacement is narrower and holds.

  1. 01
    The public promise stops before the remedy.
    Replaced “Nobody’s fee moves.” 103 companies publish no pricing page and no contract was read, so the market-wide version cannot be carried.
  2. 02
    The adjudicators are lightly adjudicated.
    Replaced “least adjudicated.” Measurement and verification carry 3 third-party figures across 95 outcome claims, but retail media carries 0 across 44.
  3. 03
    The proposition often appears before the evidence.
    Replaced “the front door asserts, the case study establishes.” 230 of 536 arguments rest on evidence elsewhere on the same site, which is not the same as a case study.
  4. 04
    Operational outcomes stand in for market outcomes.
    Replaced “production stands in for performance.” Creative tech counts assets; workflow counts pipeline and process time. Those are two different substitutions.

What the capture could not see

Five gaps apply across the whole read. Each one bounds a particular kind of statement, and each is in uncaptured_evidence.csv with MAVEN’s ruling beside it.

CountGapWhat it bounds
103of 140 companies publish no pricing pageAny fee-at-risk language would live there. MAVEN: this makes “nobody’s fee moves” unsupportable. The finding that survives is narrower and firmer — no captured page states a remedy tied to a result.
83have no how-it-works or method pageThose pages hold the machinery that lifts a figure from attributed to causal. The record can say the machinery was not exposed. It cannot say sellers lack it.
46have no reachable case studyMissing or behind a form. Named clients, third-party figures and method notes live there, so observed patterns are firmer than absences.
5sites need a full browserNetflix Ads and Reddit yielded nothing; Warner Bros. Discovery, Epsilon and Adform are partial. A fetch failure is not a market absence.
6pages animate their figuresCounters that render as zero to a text fetcher, including Disney, Demandbase and Integrate. Metric density is understated for those companies.

Eight places the record disagrees with itself

Printed rather than reconciled away. Where a figure on a page differs from a figure in a file, the file is the record.

  1. 01
    Two figures for the same idea
    433 of the 740 “Outcome” claims state a figure. 8 more guarantee one. 441 is the count of claims that state or guarantee. Both appear; they are different definitions, and 433 is the one used for “states a figure.”
  2. 02
    Two different 90s
    90 of 536 arguments are unsupported where they stand. Separately, 71 carry no evidence anywhere on the site. Nothing links the two counts.
  3. 03
    A front-door figure that was withdrawn
    An earlier draft read “55 of 131 home pages use the word.” 137 home pages were captured, and neither number reproduces. What does reproduce: 41 of 137 home pages print the word inside a captured claim, and 116 of 137 carry a claim about an outcome.
  4. 04
    The adjudication ran at the sector level
    All four MAVEN columns are blank on all 2,213 claim rows and all three on all 536 pillar rows. The second pass ran on 78 sector propositions, 13 matrix placements, 5 patterns and 5 capture gaps. Those blank columns are dropped from the files published here.
  5. 05
    MiQ is counted two ways
    companies.csv records a business-result guarantee on MiQ’s page. The claim rows code the same sentence implied, not guaranteed. The eight guarantee-coded claims therefore exclude it. Both readings are in the files.
  6. 06
    Three verbatims failed their check
    2,184 of 2,213 matched the captured page exactly, 26 matched ignoring markdown, and 3 did not match. Those three are flagged in verbatim_check and are quoted nowhere.
  7. 07
    The matrix is judgment
    The thirteen positions on claim and proof are a reading of the sector memos, not measured scores. MAVEN’s ruling: the relative topology holds, the coordinates are not scores. The counts sit in the same row so each placement can be re-argued.
  8. 08
    Sector names differ between files
    sector_stats.json, the adjudication CSVs and the deck each use a slightly different spelling. segment_id — S01 to S12 and O20 — is the key that holds across all of them.

Two research notes

The reading behind the precedent and the agentic comparison. Each one names its sources and what it could not establish.

With thanks to Marketecture. The company records, segment definitions and news history behind this sample came from the Marketecture Advertising Database. Their API is what made a 140-company frame buildable in two days. The frame is better for it, and the errors in it are ours. maddb.ai · Marketecture Media
Rebuild any figure. claims.csv and sector_stats.json generate every number published in this study. If one does not reproduce, it is an error and it will be corrected with credit. — Bret Leece, bret.leece@gmail.com